GET READY for volatility - NFP is back in the spotlight: Markets are preparing for a strong reaction

Dear traders, Are you ready for the release of Non-Farm Payrolls? On February 11, 16:30 Moscow time, data on employment and unemployment in the United States for January 2026 will be released. Often, the release of this data causes a spike in volatility in the markets.

The focus is on the US labor market. January data on non-farm sector employment and unemployment, originally scheduled for February 6, were postponed due to a partial government shutdown. As the publication approaches, markets may react more sharply than usual.

Stronger-than-expected job growth combined with a decrease in the unemployment rate may support the US dollar. Conversely, weaker job creation and rising unemployment could put pressure on the US dollar.

Low NFP (less than 150,000) can put pressure on the USD exchange rate: investors will assume that the Fed will reduce the pace of rate hikes. High NFPs (more than 250,000) can strengthen the US currency, highlighting the strength of the labor market and reviving expectations of a sharper and longer rate hike.

The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector is a key indicator of the economic condition of the United States. Active job creation supports consumer spending, which, in turn, stimulates economic growth. The unemployment rate reflects the strength of the labor market — collectively, these indicators play a crucial role in shaping the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve System.

Keep an eye on upcoming key events that may significantly affect the markets.

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