00:02 GMT+3 / 04.12.2023

TOP 5 economic news for the week - TeleTrade exclusives


Since a deal was reached earlier to prevent a US government shutdown, investors are focusing on US employment data and speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in the coming week. The meeting of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will also be in the spotlight. All the most important things are in our top!

Wages in the non-agricultural sector

On Friday, the US will publish a report on employment for September, which will be the subject of close attention. Economists expect the economy added 163,000 jobs last month, down slightly from 187,000 in August.

Ahead of Friday's report, the JOLTS employment report for August is due to be published on Tuesday. An update on private sector hiring from the ADP National Employment Report will follow a day later.

On Monday, the Institute of Supply Management will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for September. It is expected to remain in the territory of reduction for the eleventh month in a row. According to forecasts, the ISM business activity index, which will be released on Wednesday, will indicate a slightly slower growth.

Powell's comments

Jerome Powell, along with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, will participate in a roundtable discussion with workers, small business owners and community leaders on Monday.

Data released on Friday indicated progress in the area of inflation. At the same time, annual core inflation fell below 4% for the first time in more than two years. But rising oil prices affect the cost of gasoline at gas stations, which means that the path to the Fed's 2% inflation target will be a long one.

In September, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but indicated that it still expects another rate hike in 2023 and a reduction in the number of cuts in 2024.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are also set to speak during the week.

Fourth quarter on stock markets

The crucial final quarter of the year begins after a weak third quarter for stocks.

During the quarter, the S&P 500 index fell by about 3.6%, the Dow index lost 2.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 4.1%. In September, the S&P 500 index fell by 4.9%, the Dow index fell by 3.5%, and the Nasdaq declined by 5.8%.

Rising bond yields are shaking stock markets. Some investors fear that the growing valuations of large-cap companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, may become another “weak spot".

Stocks of technology and growth companies are often accompanied by high expectations of an increase in their profits in the coming years. As a rule, these stocks are particularly hard hit when bond yields rise, because their future earnings are heavily discounted.

Speech by Christine Lagarde

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to give a speech to investors on Wednesday in search of guidance on the future course of interest rates. Early data on Friday showed that inflation in the eurozone fell to its lowest level in two years last month. These data fueled hopes that the ECB has already raised rates strongly enough to return inflation to the 2% target.

Inflation in the euroblock briefly reached double digits last fall amid a combination of a sharp rise in energy prices, post-pandemic disruptions in supply chains and high government spending.

In response, the ECB raised interest rates to a record high of 4.0% from a low of minus 0.5% in just over a year, after a decade spent trying to stimulate inflation with ultra-soft monetary policy.

RBA and RBNZ meetings

The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its first meeting with new governor Michelle Bullock, the first woman to head the bank.

Investors will be looking for any indication as to whether the RBA is done with rate hikes or perhaps new ones will follow after some recent signs of persistent price pressures in the services sector. Everyone agrees that it is necessary to pause.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its last policy meeting on Wednesday. Despite the RBNZ's hawkish stance, market watchers do not expect a rate hike – instead, they are focusing on whether officials can point to a possible move in November.

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04 October 2023

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