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TOP 5 economic news for the week - TeleTrade exclusives

TOP 5 news of the week

Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November will be in the spotlight this week as investors try to assess how resilient the U.S. economy is in the face of an interest rate hike. Oil prices will remain volatile, and the meetings of the central banks of Australia and Canada may highlight the view that rates have reached their peak. All the most interesting things are in our top.

US non-agricultural employment data

The market will be looking forward to Friday's US employment report for November to see if economic growth continues to level off!?

Too large numbers could push up bets that the Fed will begin to ease its tight monetary policy sooner than expected. This will be an obstacle to the growth of stocks and bonds in the fourth quarter.

Small numbers, on the other hand, could raise concerns that the economy is cooling after a 525 basis point rate hike, which could dampen interest in risk.

In addition, the number of vacancies in the United States is expected to decrease in November on Tuesday, and a report on initial applications for unemployment benefits will be published on Thursday.

Will the "Santa Claus Rally" come?

U.S. stocks rose and the S&P 500 closed at its highest level in a year last Friday, starting December on an upbeat note as investors became more confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve had stopped raising rates after comments from its head Jerome Powell.

Powell promised to act cautiously with regard to the interest rate, calling the risks of too much tightening more balanced than the risks of uncontrolled inflation.

Currently, there is a high probability that the Fed will cut the rate as early as March 2024, but the market has misjudged the Fed's steps and economic conditions several times in recent years and may do so again.

Oil volatility

On Friday, oil prices fell by more than 2% amid investor skepticism about the depth of the OPEC+ supply cuts and concerns about sluggish activity in the global industry.

During the week, the Brent brand decreased by about 2.1%, and WTI lost more than 1.9%.

On Thursday, OPEC+ producers agreed to remove about 2.2 million barrels of oil per day from the world market in the first quarter of next year, including postponing the current voluntary reduction by Saudi Arabia and Russia by 1.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC+, which supplies more than 40% of global oil, will cut production after prices fell from around $98 per barrel in late September on concerns about the impact of sluggish economic growth on fuel demand.

The cuts are voluntary, so there has been no collective review of OPEC+ production targets.

The decision of the central banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at its last meeting on Tuesday after last month's rate hike and after data last week showed that inflation slowed in October.

However, investors are wary of a "hawkish" rate hold, as prices are still high and new Fed Governor Michelle Bullock is increasingly perceived as a "hawk" than her predecessor.

At Wednesday's meeting, the Bank of Canada expects the rate to remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. Recent data showed that the country's economy contracted in the third quarter, indicating that a sharp rate hike by the central bank is holding back price growth.

Investors may also get an update on when the Bank of Japan will launch its own, long-delayed tightening campaign, according to CPI data from Tokyo on Monday.

Eurozone data

The pause preceding the ECB's decision begins on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the bloc will publish industrial production data for October in France and Spain, and a day later in Germany and Italy.

Meanwhile, German factory orders data on Wednesday will give an indication of whether the downturn in the manufacturing sector of the bloc's largest economy continues.

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06 December 2023




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