TOP 5 economic news for the week - TeleTrade exclusives

Data on retail sales and bank revenues will be the main events of the shortened holiday week. Markets are awaiting more detailed information on the state of consumers in the United States. World leaders are gathering in Davos, China will release full-year GDP data, and oil prices look set to remain volatile. All the most interesting things are in our top.

Retail sales in the USA

The US retail sales data will be closely monitored on Wednesday. Whether consumer spending remains stable in the face of increased interest rates is the main factor of economic growth.

The Federal Reserve raised rates last year in an attempt to curb inflation. But with price growth slowing, the potential pace of interest rate cuts this year and whether the economy will avoid recession are key questions looming over markets.

Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.4% in December after increasing by 0.3% in November.

Data on housing commissioning and sales of existing homes will give an idea of the situation in the housing market, which is still experiencing difficulties due to high borrowing costs.

Investors will also have the opportunity to hear the views of several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, as well as Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic and San Francisco Fed Head Mary Daly.

Income of banks

Bank revenues are expected to continue to grow: Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab publish reports on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The largest U.S. banks reported lower profits in a turbulent fourth quarter marred by special fees and job cuts, with signs that revenue growth from high interest rates is waning and some consumer loans are starting to depreciate.

Nevertheless, the country's largest lenders JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup expressed optimism about the economy, noting that consumers remain resilient.

Davos

The 54th annual World Economic Forum entitled “Restoring Trust" kicked off on Monday at the Swiss ski resort of Davos.

Politicians, central bankers and business leaders will discuss the difficult prospects for the global economy, including the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, trade problems and rising debt levels.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang and French President Emmanuel Macron, the only G7 leader present in Davos, are both scheduled to make special speeches.

The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has three speeches scheduled. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Ajay S. Banga, President of the World Bank, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization, will also be present.

China's GDP

On Wednesday, China will release full-year GDP data that will show how close the world's second-largest economy has come to achieving the official growth target of 5% for 2023.

The protracted crisis in the real estate market, consumer caution and geopolitical challenges also indicate that China's economy faces another difficult year.

On Monday, Germany will release full-year GDP data that could show that the eurozone's largest economy has experienced a small recession in 2023.

The UK will publish inflation data, which will be closely monitored, on Wednesday, the day after the latest employment data. Core inflation is expected to remain well above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Oil price volatility

Oil prices look set to remain volatile in the coming week after rising 1% on Friday as an increasing number of oil tankers veered off course in the Red Sea following U.S. and British strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen following attacks on shipping by the Iranian-backed group.

Over the week, Brent fell by 0.5%, and American oil fell by 1.1%. Earlier this week, a sharp decline in prices by the largest exporter Saudi Arabia and an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States increased supply concerns.

Although there is no navigation through the Red Sea... It does create problems with the transportation of some crude oil supplies, the impact on the physical oil markets is minimal so far," Matt Stefani, president of the investment consulting firm Cavanal Hill Investment Management, told Reuters.

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