02:12 GMT+3 / 22.07.2024
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The minutes of the Fed's July meeting will be closely monitored, as investors are waiting for guidance on the short-term dynamics of interest rates. Data on retail sales and trade revenues will give an idea of the state of consumer spending. Data from China is expected to highlight concerns about the recovery of the world's number two economy. Follow our weekly tops!

Inflation rate

Before markets turn their attention to the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole (Wyoming) at the end of the month, investors will focus on the minutes of the Central Bank's July policy meeting on Wednesday.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month and left room for another hike in September. The protocol will help investors assess the appetite for further rate hikes, although markets are betting on a pause in September.

Last week's data showed that although US consumer prices and producer prices rose moderately in July, the overall trend indicates a weakening of inflationary pressure.

The US central bank has raised interest rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

US economic data

On Tuesday, the US will release retail sales data for July, which may show an increase in demand at the beginning of the third quarter after a smaller-than-expected increase in June.

The data is expected to indicate that the manufacturing sector is still experiencing difficulties.

According to forecasts, data on the housing sector will be more positive, and reports on the issuance of construction permits and the commissioning of housing on Wednesday will show signs of stabilization.

The US will also publish a weekly report on initial applications for unemployment benefits on Thursday.

Retail income

The reporting season for the second quarter is coming to an end. The S&P 500 results present a mixed picture: companies are beating analysts' earnings expectations at the fastest pace in almost two years, even though revenue figures have fallen to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020.

The largest US retailers are going to report their results this week, which will give investors important information about the state of consumer spending, which is the main factor in the growth of the US economy.

Home Depot (HD) will publish the report on Tuesday, Target (TGT) will publish the results on Wednesday, and Walmart (WMT) a day later. Macy's (M), Nordstrom (JWN), Kohl's (KSS) and Lowe's (LOW) will report in the coming weeks.

Investors will focus on how inflation will affect margins in retail, as higher prices reduce the purchasing power of households.

Chinese data

China's post-COVID economic recovery has slowed in recent months after a strong first quarter weighed down by weak demand at home and abroad.

Beijing will release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment on Tuesday.

Data last week showed that consumer prices in China declined year-on-year in July for the first time in more than two years. This has increased pressure on politicians to do more to strengthen the economy.

The authorities promised to take measures to support the economy, although details were scarce, which disappointed investors.

Rising oil prices

Oil prices rose on Friday after the International Energy Agency predicted record global demand and supply cuts. This led to an increase in prices for the seventh week in a row, which became the longest trend since 2022.

Demand reached a record high of 103 million barrels per day in June and could rise to a new peak this month, the IEA predicts.

Meanwhile, production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia have paved the way for a sharp reduction in reserves by the end of 2023, which could lead to an even greater increase in oil prices.

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15 August 2023
RISK WARNING
Conducting trading operations in financial markets with margin financial instruments has a high level of risk and can lead to losses and loss of investment funds. When starting trading, make sure that you are fully aware of all the risks, as well as have the appropriate knowledge and experience for trading.

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